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Hoard for speculation of Chinese estate land and capital precipitation evaluate

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The net entrusts focal estate research
Research center of banking of Beijing Normal University
The member that the task comprises: Snow of king of Wei of bell Wei the Kingdom of Wei
The report refers date: On November 20, 2007

Evaluated a report to undertake to the dimensions of hoard for speculation of Chinese estate land and structure appraise is measured originally, the capital gross that undertakes was computationaled precipitating to go up in land, and the credit fund gross that store up ground precipitates. In addition, we still tried to undertake discussion to the relation of house price and price, show price to be opposite of house price occupy comparing is not the critical factor that drives house price, offer the change of local type and dimensions, unbalance of the estate city that bring about's serious supply and demand, just be the key that drives house price violent wind to rise.

   Main appraise measures a result to be as follows:

1, phenomenon of store up ground is not the phenomenon that appears recently, the store up land before 2004 increases scope, than after this faster. Showing store up ground is the phenomenon that after be being tightened up for the ground, gets paying close attention to extensively. Appraise is measured by 2007, the scale of store up ground that develops business to carry normative channel is about 800 million smooth rice, standard and ground of blame standard store up are about 1 billion smooth rice.

2, the scale of store up ground with development current business about static state of supportable development business develops 4 years of dynamic perhaps development 3 years, can prop up a complete development cycle.

3, the capital precipitation dimensions that store up ground brings about can come through a variety of means estimation, integrated all sorts of estimation, up to to the end of 2006, estimation precipitation is made an appointment with in the capital on land 2.4 trillion, this is equivalent to almost at present year of sale of commodity house, the total of profit of year net profit of industry of the real-estate before the capital cost that precipitates to go up in land also exceeded order, the overall financial standing that shows estate company is dovish the gender drops quickly.