wellcome toQingdao office Nets
Position:home>Market Analysis> Epicycle is added breath is already adjacent add at most inside the end of the y

Epicycle is added breath is already adjacent add at most inside the end of the y

From;  Author:本站
3 quarters are main this year economic norms will at be being announced next week. Nevertheless, increase the near future of crucial economic norms such as the value to tend as business of main favorable balance of trade, industry stable, research center of economy of Beijing University China teachs Song Guoqing to express, total demand of 3 quarters economy will drop in temperature apparently, this is adumbrative " epicycle adds the action of breath to had neared end, add at most inside Central Bank the end of the year cease " .

In each economic norms, industrial business raises value and favorable balance of trade the crucial index with the oldest influence of these two total to economy demand is most conspicuous. Nevertheless, achieved nearly 12 years to come to the industrial company with only top month increase a value to be in June this year 3 quarters are ceaseless fall after a rise, and another crucial index -- annulus comparing adds the monthly of favorable balance of trade fast also be in drop ceaselessly, in 3 quarters, favourable balance annulus is led all the year round than adding even from 50% drop more 0 the left and right sides. Song Guoqing expresses, total demand annulus grows annual rate to will drop accordingly than adding about 4% .

Song Guoqing predicts, the influence that is dropped in temperature apparently by total demand, 3 quarters GDP (gross domestic product) add fast will relatively the corresponding period grew 11.8% to control last year, but " if from this year each quarter annulus compares a consideration, 3 quarters economy is added fast already relatively 2 quarters are apparent fall after a rise " .

In addition, song Guoqing points out, as effect of national valorize policy release ceaselessly, future the possibility that 3 exceed 3% to rate of 5 years of average inflation is very little, from this, at present 3 years period 4.97% with 5 years period the saving interest rate of 5.12% already not low. He expresses, "This one constrictive action, add the action of breath to had neared end especially. Add the action of breath to had neared end especially..

Nevertheless, be about to announce as what 3 season degree occupies, policy of central adjusting control still is continueing to come on stage thick and fast. This month 13 days, the Central Bank announces inside year go up the 8th times tone deposit reserve is led; And two days are in before this, the Central Bank issued 150 billion yuan of directional note, as add breath " very closely associated with each other " policy, the market thinks generally inside year add the signal of breath the 6th times more and more apparent.

"The main purpose of two policy still is contractive money liquidity. " Song Guoqing predicts, because favorable balance of trade restores likely still to grow higher, rise to reserve is led and add the bank note that send center such measure still can continue, "Appropriate of monetary policy respect tightens unfavorable pine " .